Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Painting the Electoral College map blue


Twenty-eight days to go and the most recent polls show Sen. Barack Obama continues to widen his lead against Sen. John McCain.

The Electoral College map that used to be a wash of red (with a few exceptions like the West Coast and the Northeast) is starting to look like the Smurfs are progressively marching across the country. (In other words, the map is turning a Democratic blue.)

The latest NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up six points with registered voters, 49%-43%. Just two weeks ago, that lead was within the margin of error at 2 points.

A CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll has Obama even higher, with an 8-point lead (53%-45%). That's double the 4-point lead Obama held in their poll taken last month.

And, in today's Gallup Daily Tracking poll, registered voters prefer Obama 51% to McCain's 42%. Gallup points out the importance of this:

The nine-percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate.

Our own Yahoo! News Political Dashboard highlights the difference -- what used to be GOP safe havens, like Florida and North Carolina, are now trending toward Obama territory.

How does a map that looked so red in November 2004 look so blue October 2008?

Poll: Obama Gains in States That Went for Bush


On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week's vice-presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion.

In North Carolina, which Bush won by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, McCain and Obama are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering the support of 49% of likely voters. In Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000, McCain maintains a slight 5-point lead over Obama, with 51% of likely voters, compared with Obama's 46%.

In the crucial swing state of Ohio, which Bush won by slight margins in both 2000 and 2004, McCain trails Obama by 3 points, with the support of 47% of voters, compared with Obama's 50%. Obama also holds a statistically significant 8-point lead over McCain in New Hampshire and a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, two states that Democrat John Kerry was able to win in 2004.

As a result of the new survey, CNN now considers New Hampshire and Wisconsin to be Obama-leaning states, after previously being considered toss-ups. North Carolina is now considered a toss-up, after previously being categorized as a McCain-leaning state.

The polls were conducted between Oct. 3 and 6, after last Thursday's debate. They have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 to 4 percentage points.

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign's political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama's deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

"I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years," DuHaime said. "Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin."

After two grueling years, only two major events remain in the 2008 presidential campaign: a town-hall forum Tuesday in Tennessee and a debate on Oct. 15 in New York. In a nod to the dwindling window of opportunity, McCain again sharpened his attacks on Obama during a stump speech Monday in New Mexico, charging that Obama harbors a "back story" on every issue that needs to be explored.

"All people want to know is, what has this man ever actually accomplished in government? What does he plan for America?" McCain said. "In short, who is the real Barack Obama? But ask such questions and all you get in response is another barrage of angry insults."

Campaigning in North Carolina, Obama countered by charging that McCain and his aides were "gambling that they can distract you with smears rather than talk to you about substance."

KEATING ECONOMICS: John McCain & The Making of a Financial Crisis



Learn more at http://www.keatingeconomics...

Monday, October 6, 2008

Obama Leading McCain in New Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota Polls


Oct. 6

(Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain in battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to new polls.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads 49 percent to 42 percent among Ohio voters, according to a Columbus Dispatch poll of 2,262 likely voters released yesterday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3, shows a change from a poll by the newspaper before the parties' nominating conventions, when McCain had a single percentage-point advantage. The state is crucial to the Arizona senator's campaign, because no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

Polls in Ohio ``are showing increased support for Barack Obama,'' because voters are paying attention to McCain's support for privatizing Social Security, backing ``job-killing trade agreements,'' and his backing of deregulation of the banking system, Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown said on ABC's ``This Week'' program yesterday.

A Minnesota poll of 1,084 likely voters published by the Star Tribune newspaper shows Obama leading 55-37 percent over McCain. The poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2.

Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said the Star Tribune poll is ``notoriously not accurate,'' and said a separate earlier poll found McCain favored by 1 percentage point.

``Minnesota is a Democrat-leaning state, but not so much that it's implausible for a Republican to win here,'' Pawlenty said on ``This Week.''

Pennsylvania Poll

In Pennsylvania, Obama has a 50 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll.

The Muhlenberg College poll surveyed 597 likely voters and was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3. The results of the three state polls were outside the margin for error.

The presidential race in Colorado remains a tie, according to a poll released by the Denver Post yesterday.

National polls also show that Obama is maintaining a lead over McCain.

Obama led McCain 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters surveyed Sept. 27-29 by the Pew Research Center. In a mid- September poll, the candidates were in a statistical dead heat.

In a CBS News poll conducted Sept. 27-30, Obama led 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. The margin increased 4 percentage points from a CBS/New York Times survey a week earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Stern in Washington at cstern3@bloomberg.net

Saturday, October 4, 2008

OJ SIMPON FOUND GUILTY 10/03/08

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O. J. Simpson Found Guilty in Robbery Trial


LAS VEGAS — O.J. Simpson was found guilty late Friday on all 12 counts stemming from a confrontation in a hotel room last year, including armed robbery and kidnapping.

O.J. Simpson, left, hugged his friend Thomas Scotto after he was found guilty at his trial in Las Vegas. His sister Carmelita Durio is at right.

The verdict, which comes 13 years to the day after Mr. Simpson was acquitted in the highly publicized murders of his ex-wife and her friend, concluded a four-week trial that many have seen as a proxy for those unsatisfied by that 1995 outcome.

Mr. Simpson now faces 15 years to life for the kidnapping charge as well as a minimum of at least another 10 years in prison on the other charges. His attorney, Yale Galanter, said he would appeal.

The football Hall of Fame inductee showed little emotion as the verdicts were read and the judge denied him bail. As his sister, Carmelita, wept and fainted in the front row, he was led away in handcuffs. Mr. Simpson is scheduled to be sentenced on Dec. 5.

“He’s extremely upset, extremely emotional,” said Mr. Galanter of the demeanor of his client after being removed from the courtroom. “We knew this was going to be very difficult, we knew the jury was going to be very difficult, we knew the jurisdiction would be very difficult.”

Clark County District Attorney David Roger, the lead prosecutor in the case, said his office would not comment on the case until after sentencing. None of the jurors spoke to the media on Friday.

The charges arose after Mr. Simpson led five cohorts on a raid of a Palace Station Hotel-Casino room and departed with hundreds of memorabilia items related to the sports careers of Mr. Simpson and three other athletes.

The items were in the possession of two memorabilia dealers, Bruce L. Fromong and Alfred Beardsley, who were led to believe that a prospective buyer was coming to browse the goods. Instead, Mr. Simpson and his group burst into the room. According to several witnesses, at least one gun was brandished.

The presence of a weapon adds years to the minimum sentences for nine of the 12 charges, which also included conspiracy to commit robbery and kidnapping, burglary, robbery, assault and coercion.

The jury of nine women and three men deliberated for 13 hours, mulling weeks of testimony as well as hours of surreptitious audio recordings of the planning and execution of the event by Thomas Riccio, a memorabilia auctioneer who arranged the confrontation.

There were no blacks among the jurors, a concern of the defense that Mr. Simpson’s attorneys said would likely be part of an appeal.

Convicted alongside Mr. Simpson, 61, was Clarence Stewart, 54, one of the five men who accompanied Mr. Simpson in the raid. Mr. Stewart faces the same sentences.

Throughout the trial, Mr. Stewart’s attorney E. Brent Bryson asked repeatedly for Mr. Stewart to receive a separate trial because associating with Mr. Simpson was poisonous to the defense. Each of his severance motions was denied.

“If there was ever a trial in the history of American jurisprudence that should have been severed, it was obviously this trial,” a stunned and dazed Mr. Bryson said. “There’s a spillover effect here. There’s a gentleman by the name of O.J. Simpson who was sitting across the table. Mr. Simpson has a certain history that followed him into the courtroom and, unfortunately, it engulfed Mr. Stewart also.”

Mr. Simpson’s defense was that he sought only to retrieve personal keepsakes such as ceremonial footballs from his Hall of Fame N.F.L. career and photographs of his family that were taken from his home years ago. Mr. Roger told the jury that he should have filed a civil lawsuit to regain the items if they were, in fact, stolen from him.

“We don’t want people going into rooms to take property,” said Mr. Roger in his closing arguments on Thursday. “That is robbery. You don’t go in and get a gun and demand property from people.”

Four of the 24 witnesses who testified were the other men who had accompanied Mr. Simpson and Mr. Stewart, all of whom have accepted plea deals from prosecutors in exchange for testimony. Two of them, Walter Alexander and Michael McClinton, carried guns in the incident, and one, Mr. McClinton, testified that he did so at Mr. Simpson’s request.

Mr. Simpson said he did not know that the two would carry weapons and never saw any guns displayed during the incident.

This Simpson trial failed to capture the intense public interest that turned his 1995 trial into the so-called Trial of the Century. That spectacle, in which he was acquitted of stabbing to death his ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and her friend, Ronald Goldman, became a racial touchstone and turned a list of legal analysts including Greta Van Susteren, Jeffrey Toobin and Star Jones into television stars. Few of the media stars involved in that case flocked to this one — Vanity Fair’s Dominick Dunne was a notable exception — and even Marcia Clark, the former prosecutor who failed to convict Mr. Simpson in 1995, did not appear despite securing media credentials to report for Entertainment Tonight.

Indeed, this case played out against the backdrop of a nation obsessed by a presidential election campaign and the nation’s economic crisis. But the current trial also featured victims who were far less sympathetic, two middle-aged memorabilia dealers who both attempted to profit from their roles in this case by trying to sell their stories to the tabloid media.

The defense focused much of its efforts on discrediting Mr. Fromong, Mr. Beardsley and the four men who assisted Mr. Simpson and Mr. Stewart in the alleged robbery. On several occasions, Simpson attorneys Yale Galanter and Gabriel Grasso caught those witnesses in apparent contradictions, such as when Mr. Fromong insisted he did not try to sell his story despite audio recordings immediately after the incident in which Mr. Fromong is heard saying, “I’ll have ‘Inside Edition’ down here tomorrow. I told them I want big money.”

While Mr. Simpson’s famous acquittal in the 1994 murders was never discussed during the trial, it hung over the proceedings. Jurors were quizzed extensively before their selection about their views of the divisive 1995 trial, and references were made in some of the audio recordings to the fact that Mr. Simpson owes the estate of Ms. Simpson and Mr. Goldman $33.5 million because in 1997 he was held liable in a civil lawsuit for the deaths.

Mr. Galanter attacked that issue in his closing, noting that Mr. Riccio’s recorder had picked up police officers at the crime scene seeming to exult in their chance to prosecute Mr. Simpson. He also noted that Mr. Riccio alone testified that he had made more than $200,000 in fees from the news media in exchange for interviews and rights to his recordings.

“This case has never been about a search for the true facts,” Mr. Galanter said. “This case has taken on a life of its own because Mr. Simpson’s involved. You know that, I know that, every cooperator, every person with a gun, every person who signed a book deal, every person who got paid money, the police, the district attorney’s office, was only interested in one thing: Mr. Simpson.”

Friday, October 3, 2008

Wretched at Wrigley


CHICAGO – The morgue was empty, except for the two men smacking dirt off shoes.

They stood to the side, away from the Chicago Cubs lockers, and struck each pair with a steel brush, thwack-thwack, thwack-thwack, like a drumbeat to which the Cubs marched out.

First there was Jim Edmonds, in his 17th major-league season, and he said he was ashamed. And then came Rich Harden, the pitcher, who said he barely could watch the carnage. And finally the rest of them: Derrek Lee and Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs’ infield from right to left, all culprits in the messiest, ugliest, most harrowing defeat of the year, the one that reinforced the suffocating sense of doom that chokes Wrigley Field every time it’s graced with baseball in October.

This was no curse. Just a disaster.

The 10-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night left the Cubs with an 0-2 deficit in the National League Division Series and the task of winning three consecutive games – including the next two at Dodger Stadium – to save their season. The overwhelming favorite in the NL – the 97-win juggernaut, the team upon which destiny was smiling, the one that would break the championship drought before it reached 100 years – self-destructed in spectacular fashion.

“It’s embarrassing,” outfielder Alfonso Soriano said. “Everybody’s upset. We had the best team in the regular season. Now we play like we don’t know how to play the game.”

The gaffes, the tragicomic sort patented by the Cubs, came with the fury of a god scorned. DeRosa botched a double-play ball at second base that would’ve allowed Carlos Zambrano to escape the second inning unscathed, and Lee followed with an uncharacteristic mangling of a ground ball at first base, and eventually a bases-clearing double from Russell Martin staked the Dodgers to a 5-0 advantage.

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Ramirez followed with an error in the fourth inning and Theriot with his own in the ninth, completing the trapezoid of ineptitude. Certainly no playoff team ever had seen all four of its infielders botch routine defensive plays in the same game.

History reserves some things for the Cubs.

“It’s like we might as well not have had gloves out there,” Lee said. “We just couldn’t catch the ball.”

So this is what becomes of the most promising Cubs season since, what, 1984? Maybe 1969? No. Probably 1945, a 98-win outfit managed by a man named Charlie Grimm, appropriately enough.

The city, panicking after a 7-2 loss to Los Angeles in Game 1, suffered through Thursday’s with the grace granted the familiar. They booed, sure, and each was deserved, whether for the errors or the clueless Kosuke Fukudome or even the comical moments when catcher Geovany Soto twice bounced throws back to Zambrano. One man braved the nippy weather and ran around bare-chested urging a nine-run rally in the ninth inning, only to see the Cubs manage two. The organist, bless his heart, tried to stir some action in the crowd of 42,136.

He might as well have been playing “Taps.”

“It wasn’t fun to watch,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella said, “I can tell you that.”

Piniella called Games 1 and 2 the two worst the Cubs had played all season, and it was tough to argue. The Cubs’ infield had been steady, if not spectacular, and to see it disappear like flash paper confused everybody.

“I’m not surprised,” Zambrano said. “I’m shocked.”

He was one of the first to leave, the unopened bottle of Champagne still in his locker. Irony a cruel witch, Zambrano, ever the live wire, actually was the most stable Cub in Game 2. He would recount his evening to friends and family via the Bluetooth headset in his ear, followed by Soriano and his 30-diamond necklace, Ramirez and his two suitcases and reliever Carlos Marmol and his black leather cap.

By that time, well past midnight, DeRosa was the only Cub still in uniform. The morgue was silent again. The six TVs in the room were off, the four ceiling fans whirring, wet towels all over the floor, Wrigley itself perhaps saying goodbye for the 93rd time in its 93 seasons without knowing the celebration of a World Series title.

On the back wall, a scrolling ticker, designed to keep the team abreast of that day’s top sports news, revealed its pixelated news. One item spooled through, taunting anyone who dare look:

Cubs have not won playoff game since Game 4 of NLCS in 2003, it read.

Underneath the ticker was a sign, spelled out in big, red capital letters, with an arrow pointing toward the door. It said EXIT.