Obama competitive against McCain with key voters

By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer
Wed May 28, 6:14 AM ET


WASHINGTON - Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain.

A look at voters who have been closely contested in recent presidential elections — or veered from one party to the other, making them true swing groups — shows a significant number have leaned toward Obama's rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the primaries. Besides women and Catholics, these include the elderly, the less educated and suburbanites, leading Clinton to argue that this makes her the Democrats' stronger candidate for the fall campaign.

Yet Obama's performance with these voters in the primaries doesn't necessarily mean he'd do poorly with them in the general election, assuming he nails down the last few convention delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton — whites who have not completed college — he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.

Obama is doing well against McCain with groups he has dominated in the primaries. Polls show him ahead of the Arizona senator with young people and college graduates, though the results vary from poll to poll among independents.

To be sure, Obama's poor performance with some groups in the primaries cannot be ignored. His task of wooing them could be complicated by McCain's attempts to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters and by the strong emotions Obama's long-running competition with Clinton has aroused. In recent contests, only half her supporters have said they would vote for Obama against McCain in the fall.

"I won't vote, or I'll go for McCain," said Maureen Brown, 53, of Philadelphia, a Clinton supporter who said she thinks Obama is too inexperienced. "Our options are pretty bad."

Yet Election Day is more than five months away, with tons of campaign money yet to be spent trying to influence voters like Brown who by then will be more focused on party identification and issues than they are today.

Obama's aim won't necessarily be to win majorities with the swing groups Clinton has dominated. Rather, he'll want to do well enough with them that when combined with the well educated, blacks, the young and other groups that are his strength, he'll snare the electoral votes he needs.

Women have preferred Clinton over Obama by 7 percentage points in this year's Democratic primaries, according to exit polls of voters. But when matched against McCain this month, Obama was ahead among women by 5 points in the Gallup Poll, 13 points in a poll by Quinnipiac University and 20 points in a survey by CBS News and The New York Times.

"I don't think those women voting for Hillary Clinton in the primaries will find John McCain more attractive" than Obama, said Mark Watts, a Democratic pollster.

Women voted for John Kerry by just 3 points in the 2004 general election, but favored fellow Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1996 by larger margins.

White women are especially in play in November, and they have voted for Hillary Clinton over Obama by a decisive 24 points. Polling this month shows mixed results over whether Obama or McCain is ahead with this group.

They leaned solidly toward President Bush in 2004, split about evenly between Bush and Gore in 2000, and tilted slightly toward President Clinton in 1996.

In addition:

_Though Obama trails Hillary Clinton by 25 points among Catholics in the primaries, he and McCain are dividing them about evenly in national polls. Catholics, a quarter of the 2004 electorate, backed Bush narrowly that year, leaned slightly to Gore in 2000 and heavily toward President Clinton in 1996.

_Obama leads McCain slightly among suburban residents, though he narrowly trailed Hillary Clinton with these voters. This group was nearly half of all voters in 2004 and favored Bush slightly that year and in 2000, while President Clinton had the edge in 1996.

_People without college degrees are tilting toward Obama over McCain, even though they have preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Whites who haven't finished college have favored Clinton over Obama in the primaries by 30 points, and prefer McCain over Obama, by up to 20 points in the Gallup Poll. Yet that's in the range of recent Democratic losses with this group — Bush won them by 23 points in 2004 and 17 points in 2000, while GOP candidate Bob Dole won them narrowly in 1996.

_Obama trails Clinton by 24 points among voters age 65 and older. McCain is well ahead of Obama in the Gallup and Quinnipiac polls, but they're about even in the CBS/Times poll. The elderly leaned by small margins toward Bush in 2004, Gore in 2000 and President Clinton in 1996.

For Republicans who have long dominated among men and whites, the place you start looking to capture votes from Democrats is those who have stayed with Hillary Clinton and culturally conservative Democrats, like working-class white voters, said GOP pollster Neil Newhouse.

In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll last month, about a quarter of Clinton supporters and one in six white Democrats who have not finished college said they would back McCain should Obama be the Democratic nominee, with roughly a quarter of each undecided.

"That provides us with a target-rich environment," Newhouse said.

The exit poll data is based on responses from more than 44,000 voters in 33 states that have held Democratic primaries this year; nearly 14,000 people who voted nationally in 2004; about 13,000 who voted in 2000; and about 16,000 who voted in 1996. The margin of sampling error for each was plus or minus 1 percentage point, larger for some subgroups. Also included were figures from national polls conducted this month by Quinnipiac, Gallup , and CBS with the Times.

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Associated Press Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

Polls: Race helps Clinton with whites

By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Add this to the divisive debate over race in the presidential campaign: Whites who said race was important in picking their candidate have been about twice as likely to back Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as Sen. Barack Obama.

Exit polls of voters in Democratic primaries also show that whites who considered the contender's race — Clinton is white, Obama is black — were three times likelier to say they would only be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee than if Obama were chosen.

The figures shed some light on race's effect on a competition that moves to the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, which has a slightly greater proportion of whites than average. The numbers also underscore the challenge Obama could face in the general election, when whites will comprise a larger share of voters and tend to be more conservative than those participating in the Democratic primaries.

Throughout the campaign, Obama has tried to avoid being cast narrowly as a black candidate. Last Friday, he was the only one of the three major presidential contenders to not travel to Memphis, Tenn., to mark the 40th anniversary of the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

"The only thing Obama can do is keep the campaign about change in the future" while running as "a candidate for the whole country," said David Beattie, a Democratic pollster.

Whites who said race influenced their decision were outnumbered more than six to one by those saying it was insignificant. Whites who say they discounted race also leaned toward Clinton, though by more modest margins.

Obama has trailed Clinton, the New York senator, among whites nationally yet won the white vote in six state primaries. He leads overwhelmingly with blacks.

In the exit polls, whites saying they considered the candidate's race were likelier to be from the South and rural areas, less educated, lower earning and older. That's consistent with voting so far, in which Obama has done better among whites with more education and higher incomes, especially men.

Ohio — which has similar proportions of downscale whites to Pennsylvania — was among the states with higher numbers of whites saying race mattered. Clinton won Ohio's March 4 primary by 10 percentage points. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Clinton with a solid lead in Pennsylvania among whites, while Obama led easily with blacks.

Pollsters have long expressed doubts about using polls to precisely gauge voters' feelings about the sensitive issue of race, concerned that some people give answers they think are socially acceptable.

The phenomenon even has a name, the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley's losing 1982 run for California governor despite favorable polls, making him one of several prominent black candidates in the 1980s who did worse than surveys suggested. Critics argue that other factors could account for the discrepancies and say white voters' reluctance to support black candidates has diminished since then.

No one doubts some voters are influenced by a candidate's race. The pivotal questions this year are how many are abandoning Obama because he is black, and whether they are offset by others supporting him for racial reasons. Many of this year's primaries have already seen increased turnout among black and younger voters.

"We'd be foolish to say it's not a factor," Harvey Gantt, an Obama supporter who lost two senatorial races against Republican Jesse Helms in North Carolina in the 1990s, said of race.

But Gantt, who was the first black mayor of Charlotte, N.C., said he believes those voting for racial reasons can be offset by higher turnout among blacks and others eager to support a black candidate. He and others said fewer voters are letting a candidate's race outweigh their concerns about issues or political preferences.

So far, the outlook for November is unclear. A poll last month by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center showed Clinton and Obama both trailing likely GOP nominee John McCain among whites by under 10 percentage points, but some expect Obama's race to be telling.

"You ain't heard nothing at all yet if Obama is the nominee and it's Obama-McCain," said Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., a member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Cornell Belcher, an Obama pollster, argued that the candidate has done well with whites in some states and will attract more as the campaign continues.

The exit polls also reveal a tilt toward Clinton, who would be the first female president, by those who strongly considered the candidate's gender. While those saying sex was not a factor leaned slightly toward Obama, six in 10 of those saying gender was important have supported Clinton, including more men. Most said the candidate's gender was not important.

Whites who said race was their top consideration or an important factor preferred Clinton over Obama by 63 percent to 32 percent. Those who said race was not consequential backed Clinton by a narrower 11 percentage points.

Nearly one in three blacks said race was significant in choosing their candidate. Eighty-eight percent of blacks who said race was an important factor voted for Obama, compared to 81 percent of those who said they did not consider race.

At the same time, 41 percent of whites who said race was important said they would only be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee, compared to 14 percent who said they would only be happy with Obama. Another 36 percent said either would be fine.

Whites who said race was not a factor were nearly evenly divided when asked which candidate would satisfy them.

The data is from exit polls in Democratic primaries conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Vermont.

In these states, 24,657 voters were asked how strongly they considered race, including 16,764 whites and 5,366 blacks. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 1 percentage point for all people and whites, 2 points for blacks.